Agriculture Canada has raised its 2025-26 ending stocks estimates for most pulse and special crops from last month, including peas and lentils.
Monthly supply-demand estimates released by Ag Canada contained updated yield and production estimates based on based on data from Ag Canada’s Canadian Crop Yield Forecast (CCYF), which incorporates remote sensing and climate data up to July 31, 2025. The CCYF suggests the production of all principal field crops will increase modestly by 1% year-over-year and be higher than the five-year average by 7%
The largest yield increases are forecast for mustard seed, lentils and canary seed, in the range of 19-24% above average. On the other hand, flaxseed and mustard seed are among those crops for which a below average yield is expected.
Pea output for this year is now estimated by Ag Canada at 3.5 million tonnes, up 300,000 from the July estimate, above 2.997 million last year, and potentially the largest crop since 2020.
With the larger crop, Ag Canada raised its pea export forecast by 100,000 tonnes from last month to 2.1 million but forecasted 2025-26 ending stocks nonetheless increased to 1.275 million from 975,000 in July, up sharply from the upwardly revised 2024-25 stocks of 525,000.
For lentils, Ag Canada bumped its production forecast to 2.6 million tonnes, compared to 2.45 million in July and above last year’s crop of 2.431 million. With projected 2025-26 exports and domestic use holding steady from July at 2.1 million and 300,000 tonnes, respectively, ending stocks were raised to 780,000 tonnes, versus 530,000 last month and 505,000 in 2024-25.
The average expected price for peas, at $365/tonne, was unchanged from last month but is down from $405 in 2024-25. For lentils, the average expected price of $700 is down $30 from last month and $90 below a year earlier.
Projected mustard production was lifted 10,000 tonnes from last month to 115,000 tonnes, still well down from 192,000 the previous year, while ending stocks increased 20,000 tonnes to 145,000, versus 155,000 a year earlier. At $925, the average expected mustard price is up $55 from July and above $860 in 2024-25.
Canary output was raised 30,000 tonnes from July to 200,000, an increase that was partially offset by a larger export forecast. Canary ending stocks are now estimated at 130,000 tonnes, up 10,000 from July and above 80,000 in 2024-25. The average expected price was dropped $40 from last month to $600, down from $685 in 2024-25.
For chickpeas, production increased 10,000 tonnes from last month to 325,000 tonnes. But with a smaller old-crop carryin and offsetting changes in exports and domestic use, chickpea ending stocks are now seen at 160,000 tonnes, down 10,000 from July but up sharply from 65,000 in 2024-25.
Sunflower production was left unchanged from July at 65,000 tonnes, up from 51,000 a year earlier, but a larger carryover of 145,000 tonners from 2024-25 raised ending stocks by 10,000 from July to 130,000.
Dry pea production saw a 5,000-tonne increase from last month, with ending stocks falling 20,000 to 45,000, mainly due to a downwardly revised old-crop carry in.
